The United States and Iran are moving to reinstate blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, demanding compensation from passing ships and effectively placing a new tax on global oil supplies.
Oil prices are surging once again after negotiations between the two countries broke down.
The Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran to end the war has collapsed, and the two sides have resumed hostilities, causing Brent Crude oil prices to jump from roughly $68 per barrel on 1 July to $80 per barrel as of 15 July 2026.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 20% toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping channel where a fifth of the world’s global oil supply usually passes through.
According to the CEO of financial advisory giant deVere Group, Nigel Green, this latest development in the conflict has effectively resulted in a global tax on fuel, which could become permanent.
“Tolls in the Strait of Hormuz now look almost impossible to avoid. Should they land, the world would be paying a new tax on energy itself, and everyone from investors to households would feel it,” he said.
Green explained that Washington and Tehran are fighting to control the Strait to implement tolls.
“Whoever wins this fight over the toll, the bill lands on everyone else,” he said.
“About a fifth of the world’s oil and gas moves through Hormuz. Add a 20% charge on that, and you’ve taxed global energy, full stop, no matter whose flag is on the toll booth.”
Iran’s foreign minister insists that Iran, not America, controls the Strait and that it deserves compensation for safe passage.
Trump, on the other hand, demanded on Monday that cargo ships passing through the Strait pay a 20% reimbursement fee.
Green pointed out that the United Nations’ maritime agency says there is no legal basis for either side to impose mandatory fees, but that “the legal argument barely matters anymore”.
“Two governments are fighting over who gets to run the toll booth. The rest of the world just pays whoever wins,” he said.
“Nobody in international hubs around the world cares if the flag is American or Iranian. They care that moving energy through one of the planet’s most important chokepoints just got a lot more expensive, and it might stay that way.”
Industry experts estimate that a 20% toll could add around $16 to the cost of every oil barrel making its way through the Strait, adding as much as $32 million to the cost of a single supertanker.
Green said this would dwarf anything Iran had previously tried to charge.
Bad turn for fuel prices
Traffic through Hormuz has already dropped by more than 50% over the last week, causing oil prices to rise significantly.
Bloomberg reported that oil prices are likely to remain around $80, “unless there’s some movement one way or another on the Strait”.
The silver lining is that analysts said that it is unlikely that prices will surge to $90 or $100 per barrel again.
In South Africa, the effects of the deteriorating oil price are already starting to be felt, as the strong over-recoveries for fuel prices have greatly declined.
At the start of July, the Central Energy Fund reported that petrol was set for an over-recovery of R3.70 per litre in August, while diesel would see an even bigger reduction of R5.19 per litre.
Following the recent events in the Middle East, the over-recoveries have fallen to just R1.52 per litre for petrol, and R1.08 per litre for diesel.
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