Better news about petrol prices in South Africa

The anticipated petrol and diesel price hikes for November 2026 have declined, though motorists are still set to take a major hit next month.

This is according to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), which shows a noticeable improvement in the fuel price recoveries for November.

Earlier this week, the CEF reported that South Africa was facing colossal fuel price hikes, with a R4.7 per litre increase for petrol and a R3.19 per litre increase for diesel on the cards next month.

However, the newest data shows that the under-recoveries in the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) of both liquids has declined, translating to a smaller increase.

Petrol is currently facing an under-recovery of R3.16 to R3.35 per litre, while diesel under-recovery is pegged at R1.77 to R1.97 per litre.

The slight improvement is the result of a more optimistic outlook on oil prices, which declined following President Donald Trump’s statement that the US would not attack Iran before November’s mid-term election.

These are the CEF’s latest fuel price adjustment predictions at the end of the first week of October:

• Petrol 93 – increase of R3.16 per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of R3.35 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R1.77 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R1.97 per litre

Brent Crude oil dropped to $102 per barrel after Trump announced that the US and Iran had engaged in “productive discussions,” and that crude was flowing through the Strait of Hormuz “in record numbers.”

This comes despite Tehran escalating attacks in the strait, boosting the risk for vessels that have been moving crude to global markets in increasing numbers, according to Bloomberg.

Even so, the CEF reported a lower movement in international product prices, with a 287c per litre under-recovery for petrol and a 139c per litre under-recovery for diesel.

Unfortunately, the exchange rate is also having a detrimental effect on fuel prices. The rand has fallen to R16.54 per USD, leading to a higher contribution to the BFP of petrol and diesel of 47c and 58c per litre, respectively.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in November, based on the current projections:

Petrol 93 price 2 October – 8 October

Petrol 95 price 2 October – 8 October

Diesel 0.05% price 2 October – 8 October

Diesel 0.005% price 2 October – 8 October