What to expect from petrol prices in South Africa this Wednesday

The latest data published by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that petrol and diesel prices are set to rise this Wednesday, 4 October.

Petrol costs are looking to go up by at least 77 cents per litre across the country, while diesel prices are expected to be hiked by a minimum of R1.62 per litre.

On the bright side, these predicted price changes are much lower than they were in the middle of September, when petrol was anticipated to increase by anywhere from R1.15 to R1.22 per litre and diesel by R1.93 to R2.03 per litre.

This drop in the expected price alterations comes largely off the back of lower international oil costs, which is a big determinant in the Basic Fuel Price.

At the start of September, Brent Crude oil was trading at an average of $88.55 per barrel, which shot up to $93.93 per barrel by the 15th. However, by the 29th, the black gold came back down to $92.20 per barrel, lowering its adverse impact on October’s fuel price adjustments with petrol enjoying the most of this downtrend.

According to the CEF, fuel prices in South Africa this Wednesday are expected to be adjusted as follows:

• Petrol 93 – Increase of 77c a litre
• Petrol 95 – Increase of 83c a litre
• Diesel 0.05% – Increase of R1.65 a litre
• Diesel 0.005% – Increase of R1.62 a litre

It must be noted that these predictions are not the official changes that will be made by the Department of Energy next month, which may be higher or lower as they also take into account any potential changes in the Slate Levy, taxes, transport costs, or wholesale and retail margins.

A tough end of the year

Looking at the uptrend in petrol and diesel costs throughout 2023 coupled with Europe’s ever-increasing dependence on diesel which is driving demand on a global scale, Gavin Kelly, CEO of the Road Freight Association (RFA), said consumers can expect a “tough end of the year” in terms of the prices at the pumps.

These international factors are further expected to be exacerbated by the recent spate of floods in South Africa’s coastal provinces that have rendered numerous roads too dangerous to use until they are inspected by the authorities, in turn delaying the movement of trucks across the country, “and unfortunately, that uses fuel.”

The silver lining is that, while October’s fuel price increases are still anticipated to be substantial, they will have a smaller effect on inflation than in previous months, said Kelly.

“Now, it’s going to have an impact on consumer’s pockets. Hopefully, it’s not going to be too bad on inflation… so the reserve bank should stand steady, but it’s going to be a tough end of the year definitely,” he said.