Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that prices at the pumps should fall by a noticeable amount come the first Wednesday of April.
Both petrol and diesel are set for a drop of between 82c and 96c per litre, depending on the grade.
These projections are based on movements in the international price of oil as well as the rand/US dollar exchange rate from 28 February to 13 March 2025.
During this period, the price of Brent Crude oil fell from $73.18 per barrel to a low of $69.28, before climbing back up to $69.88.
The lower average rates saw an over-recovery in domestic fuel prices of 76-90c per litre for petrol, and 82-84c per litre for diesel.
Concurrently, the average rand/US dollar exchange rate sat around R18.50/dollar on 28 February. It rose to a high of approximately R18.60/dollar by 3 March but retreated to R18.38 by the 13th.
The overall positive trend saw a further over-recovery of 6-7c per litre in local petrol and diesel costs, depending on the grade.
Taking into account these factors, fuel prices in South Africa in April are anticipated to be adjusted as follows:
- Petrol 93 – Decrease of 82c a litre
- Petrol 95 – Decrease of 96c a litre
- Diesel 0.05% – Decrease of 89c a litre
- Diesel 0.005% – Decrease of 90c a litre
It should be noted that these predictions are not the official changes that will be made by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources next month.
The final changes could be higher or lower as they are also subject to potential changes in the Slate Levy, taxes, transport and storage costs, or wholesale and retail margins
Petrol tax adjustments for April
During the yearly Budget Speech on 13 March 2025, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced that the General Fuel (GFL) and Road Accident Fund (RAF) levies will remain unchanged for the coming financial year, extending a relief measure that was first introduced in 2022.
As a result, the GFL will continue at R3.85 per litre for petrol and R3.70 per litre for diesel for the next 12 months, while the RAF Levy stays pegged at R2.18 per litre for all fuel types.
Treasury estimates that the tax freeze will spare motorists some R4 billion in 2025/26.
That said, the Carbon Tax has been hiked by 3c per litre across the board, as required under the Carbon Tax Act of 2019.
The Carbon Tax is now set at 14c per litre for petrol and 17c per litre for diesel.
These changes will come into effect on 2 April 2025.
The table below indicates the total combined fuel taxes on petrol and diesel in South Africa for 2025/26:
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