Despite global oil prices recovering slightly overnight – and petrol and diesel prices increasing from today, 1 April – South African motorists may be in for a massive price shock next month.
While it is still very early in the month, data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to potential price increases of up to R7.88 per litre for petrol and R17.57 per litre for diesel.
It must be noted that the CEF’s fuel price data look only at the average recovery of the basic fuel price, and tend to fluctuate throughout the month before settling shortly before the official price adjustment announcement.
That being said, barring major local decisions or a change in international circumstances, it seems inevitable that May will hold another major fuel price hike for South Africa’s motorists.
According to the current data from the Central Energy Fund, South Africa is set to experience the following fuel price hikes on 6 May:
- Petrol 93 – Increase of R7.53 per litre
- Petrol 95 – Increase of R7.88 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% – Increase of R17.46 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% – Increase of R17.57 per litre
If these numbers remain unchanged throughout the month, the price of petrol 95 will increase from R23.36 per litre (inland price for April 2026) to a staggering R31.24 per litre next month.
Diesel consumers will be in for a much greater shock if Diesel 0.005% jumps from R26.11 per litre to a whopping R43.68 per litre.
The latest petrol and diesel price increases already represented record-breaking adjustments for South Africa, meaning that further increases would only serve to compound the pain.
There currently seems to be no end to the Middle East conflict in sight, meaning the Strait of Hormuz will remain affected, limiting petroleum product supply and further skyrocketing global oil prices, raising fuel prices in the process.
Relief came too late
In a bid to help shield consumers from even higher petrol and diesel prices, the government announced R3 fuel levy cuts until at least next month.
By reducing the General Fuel Levy (GFL) from R4.10 per litre to R1.10 per litre, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana hopes to soften the blow to South African households and the economy as a whole.
While this action has been welcomed, there are some who believe the government needs to do more to protect citizens, while others believe the relief came too late.
The Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse (OUTA) said that citizens and businesses were left in the dark while the scale of the impending increases became clear well before the month-end.
OUTA believes that when petrol increases were projected around R5 per litre and R10 per litre for diesel, the government had enough information to act earlier.
“Government cannot keep reacting at the last minute while households and businesses carry the uncertainty,” declared OUTA CEO Wayne Duvenage.
“This relief is welcome, but it should have been communicated earlier to allow people to plan and absorb the impact.”
He explained that earlier intervention would have reduced panic and improved planning, softening the economic ripple effect that will reach the transport sector, affecting food and essential goods prices.
OUTA said that this reduces the immediate pressure, but is only a temporary fix, and not a viable solution.
“Decisions should be communicated at least a week in advance of the next fuel price adjustment on the 6th May, to avoid unnecessary uncertainty and volatility,” suggested the organisation.
Clarity on South Africa’s strategic oil reserves has also been brought into question, with no real transparency regarding current levels and the frameworks that guide its usage.
“There is no justification for keeping the public in the dark on strategic oil reserves,” added Duvenhage.
“South Africans deserve to know what safeguards are in place and when they will be used to protect the economy.”
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