South Africa facing record-high petrol prices next month

The price of petrol is set to reach a new record high in October 2026 unless the situation in the Middle East improves.

New data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the second week of September shows that petrol and diesel prices are likely to experience a massive under-recovery.

Petrol is currently on track for an under-recovery of between R1.81 and R1.93 per litre, while diesel will experience a similar under-recovery of between R1.73 and R2.03 per litre.

While this is slightly lower than last week’s predictions, which showed a price increase of R2.08 and R2.69 for petrol and diesel, respectively, this news will be of little comfort to motorists.

This is because the current hikes will push South Africa’s fuel prices to a new record high, surpassing the previous records set in June 2026.

These are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions as of 8 September:

• Petrol 93 – increase of R1.81 per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of R1.93 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R1.73 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R2.03 per litre

In June 2026, the price of petrol reached an all-time high of R28.06 per litre due to the high cost of fuel and the government’s decision to partially reintroduce the General Fuel Levy (GFL).

The GFL was cut by R3 per litre in April and May as an emergency measure to protect consumers from the surge in oil prices brought on by the war in Iran.

However, it has since been reintroduced in its entirety, meaning there is nothing left to cushion motorists from the blow lining up this October.

If the CEF’s estimates hold true, petrol will reach R28.85 per litre next month, while the wholesale price of diesel will reach R32.08 per litre.

The abysmal fuel price data is predicated on the war in the Middle East, which has flared up again with the United States and Iran launching new attacks since the start of September.

Brent Crude oil prices have climbed from $90 to $97 per barrel since the start of the month. The lowest oil price recorded since the start of the conflict was $70 per barrel in July.

Traders are waiting for the details of an Iranian deal with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Adding to the pressure is the war between Russia and Ukraine, which is tightening global oil supplies.

While the rand is in a relatively strong position, trading at just over R16 to the US dollar, it won’t be enough to offset next month’s projected fuel price increase.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in October, based on the current projections: