R3.28 per litre petrol price hike for South Africa this October

Petrol stations across South Africa are lining up to increase petrol and diesel prices by more than R3 per litre this month due to the high price of oil.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the beginning of October shows that fuel prices are currently experiencing a massive under-recovery.

While the official fuel price adjustments will only be confirmed by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) shortly before they are implemented on Wednesday, 7 October 2026, it’s unlikely that the CEF’s predictions will be radically different unless there is a major development in the Middle East conflict.

Petrol is on track for an under-recovery of between R3.08 and R3.28 per litre, while diesel is facing a similar increase of between R2.79 and R3.19 per litre.

These movements are almost entirely the result of the international price of oil, which steadily increased over the course of September:

These are the CEF’s latest fuel price adjustment predictions at the start of October:

• Petrol 93 – increase of R3.08 per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of R3.28 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R2.79 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R3.19 per litre

Brent Crude oil prices increased from $86 per barrel in late August to reach $108 per barrel by 14 September.

In the second half of the month, prices fluctuated from $96 to $106 per barrel in response to the developing situation between Iran and the United States.

The global energy market is in a vulnerable position as traders weigh the possibility of an escalation in the conflict.

The US has deployed an additional aircraft carrier to the region, raising concerns that Iran will retaliate by striking US assets and energy production facilities across the Middle East.

The end result is a higher movement in international product prices for fuel, leading to an under-recovery of South Africa’s Basic Fuel Price (BFP) of R3.29 for petrol and R3.19 for diesel.

Unfortunately, the rand has also weakened against the US dollar, falling from R16 per USD to R16.67 per USD during the period under review.

Consequently, the exchange rate is only contributing an imperceptible over-recovery in the BFP of 0.17c and 0.22c per litre for petrol and diesel, respectively.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected next week, based on the current projections:

Petrol 93 price 28 August – 1 October

Petrol 95 price 28 August – 1 October

Diesel 0.05% price 28 August – 1 October

Diesel 0.005% price 28 August – 1 October