South Africa is looking at a small fuel price reduction next month, following the recent announcement that the General Fuel Levy will be cut as a temporary relief measure.
New data from the Central Energy Fund for the end of the fourth week of October shows that petrol and diesel are still experiencing an under-recovery.
Petrol is currently tracking an under-recovery of between R1.27 and R1.38 per litre, while diesel is showing an under-recovery of R1.24 to R1.29 per litre.
These price increases are attributed to high oil prices. At the start of October, Brent Crude was trading at $98 per barrel, which has since increased to $114 per barrel.
As a result, international oil prices will lead to a higher contribution to the Basic Fuel Price (BFP), from 92c to 103c per litre for petrol and from 79c to 85c per litre for diesel.
At the same time, the rand’s value has fallen to R16.48 against the US dollar, leading to a higher contribution to the BFP of 34c and 43c for petrol and diesel, respectively.
These are the CEF’s latest fuel price adjustment predictions at the end of the fourth week of October:
- Petrol 93 – increase of R1.38 per litre
- Petrol 95 – increase of R1.27 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R1.29 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R1.24 per litre
However, the South African government announced this week that it would implement a temporary fuel price relief measure similar to the one it imposed when the war in Iran first broke out.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana confirmed that the General Fuel Levy will be reduced by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3.00 per litre for diesel from 4 November to 1 December 2026.
These tax cuts are more than enough to offset the increase in fuel prices, meaning consumers will actually see prices come down next month.
The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in November, based on the current projections:
| Fuel Type | October fuel price | Projected change (with fuel relief) | Expected fuel price for November |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R29.88 | – R0.12 | R29.76 |
| Petrol 95 | R30.25 | – R0.23 | R30.02 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R31.95 | – R1.71 | R30.24 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R33.29 | -R1.76 | R31.53 |
Petrol 93 price 2 October – 22 October
Petrol 95 price 2 October – 22 October
Diesel 0.05% price 2 October – 22 October
Diesel 0.005% price 2 October – 22 October
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