Petrol price hike coming for South Africa next week

The war in Iran has taken its toll on South Africa’s fuel prices, which are now facing a hike next month.

This is according to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the fifth and final week of July, which shows that the over-recovery for petrol has disappeared, while diesel is now set for a substantial under-recovery.

Petrol 93 is only expected to decrease by an imperceptible 5c per litre, while petrol 95 is completely unchanged – a far cry from the R2.50 per litre price cut that was projected before the war flared up again.

Diesel, on the other hand, is facing a hike of between R1.76 and R1.91 per litre, partially undoing the progress made by the previous month’s price reductions.

This poor turn of events is chiefly due to the rise in global oil prices, as the cost of Brent Crude oil skyrocketed after the United States and Iran traded blows this month following the collapse of the ceasefire agreement.

Oil prices were sitting at a low of $68 per barrel at the start of July, which surged to $92 per barrel on 23 July. Prices have since dropped slightly, sitting at around $85 per barrel.

These are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions as of 31 July:

• Petrol 93 – decrease of R0.05 per litre
• Petrol 95 – R0.00 per litre change
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R1.91 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R1.76 per litre

Another factor influencing the oil price is the US dollar/rand exchange rate, which weakened slightly due to the conflict, as well as the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hold interest rates.

The exchange rate dropped to roughly R16.80 per USD following the announcement, though it has since improved to R16.50 per USD.

A big swing in fuel price recoveries

At the start of July, it was anticipated that petrol would experience a R2.50 price reduction, meaning the fuel price recovery has diminished by the same amount.

Diesel, meanwhile, was looking at a R3.51 per litre price cut, which shows how devastating the war in the Middle East has been, as the fuel price recovery swung by R5.42 per litre.

Note that these figures are snapshots provided by the Central Energy Fund, and are not the final fuel price adjustments that will take place next week.

The official adjustment figures will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources before they take effect on Wednesday 5 August 2026.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in August, based on the current projections: