What to expect from petrol prices in South Africa this Wednesday

Fuel prices in South Africa this Wednesday are set to rise by a considerable amount.

Petrol is expected to go up by a maximum of 90c per litre while its less refined counterpart, diesel, is anticipated to climb by as much as R1.06 per litre.

These projections are based on an underperforming local currency in addition to rising international oil prices.

What to expect

The rand/US dollar exchange rate depreciated significantly for the period 27 December 2024 to 30 December 2025.

It traded at an average of around R18.80 per dollar for the entire time, in comparison to approximately R18.10 per dollar during the preceding period.

The unfavourable exchange rate caused an under-recovery in domestic fuel rates of 36-37c per litre for petrol, depending on the grade, and 40c per litre for diesel.

Meanwhile, global oil prices rose largely as a result of new sanctions on Russia, one of the world’s top oil producers.

Brent Crude oil swapped hands for $74.17 per barrel on 27 December 2024 and rose sharply to $82.03 per barrel by 15 January 2025 before settling back down to $76.87 per barrel by the 30th.

This further exacerbated the under-recovery in local fuel costs, tacking on another 46-53c per litre increase for petrol and 61-66c per litre hike for diesel, depending on the grade.

Due to these undesired market moves, fuel prices in South Africa this Wednesday are anticipated to be adjusted as follows:

• Petrol 93 – Increase of 90c a litre
• Petrol 95 – Increase of 83c a litre
• Diesel 0.05% – Increase of R1.06 a litre
• Diesel 0.005% – Increase of R1.01 a litre

It should be noted that these predictions are not the official changes that will be made by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources this February.

The final changes could be higher or lower as they are also subject to potential changes in the Slate Levy, taxes, transport and storage costs, or wholesale and retail margins.