What to expect from petrol prices in South Africa next week

Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that motorists will enjoy a small reduction in the price of petrol this August.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for diesel, which is expected to go up by a noticeable amount.

Petrol is now expected to see a reduction of up to 35c per litre, marking an appreciable improvement over the 24c per litre cut the CEF previously estimated.

Diesel, on the other hand, is still set to go up by roughly 65c per litre.

While it should be noted that the official fuel price adjustments will only be announced just before they take effect on Wednesday next week, it’s unlikely that the month-end recovery estimates will drastically change within the next few days.

These are the end-of-month fuel price adjustment estimations provided by the CEF:

• Petrol 93 – Decrease of 35 cents per litre
• Petrol 95 – Decrease of 30 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% – Increase of 65 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% – Increase of 63 cents per litre

The official changes will be made by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on Wednesday, 6 August 2025.

Bear in mind that the final adjustments may also be slightly higher or lower, as they are subject to potential changes in the Slate Levy, taxes, transport and storage costs, or wholesale and retail margins.

A volatile market

Petrol and diesel prices began to diverge in June as a result of the unstable situation in the Middle East, which impacted several major oil producers.

Combined with higher global demand for diesel, the fuel has seen a steady increase in its price.

The international price of oil went above $70 per barrel after US President Donald Trump pushed for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine or face economic penalties.

This led to concerns that crude oil supplies from Russia, an OPEC+ nation, may be disrupted.

Global markets are also fretting over the impending relaunch of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on Friday, 1 August, which are likely to impact supply and demand for various goods.

However, the market forecast has been less severe than anticipated, mainly because many are still questioning whether the Trump administration will actually follow through on its claims.

In any case, many countries are still bracing for the impact the tariffs will have on their economies, including South Africa, which is being hit with a new 30% tariff this Friday.

On a more positive note, the rand has held firm against the US dollar over the past few weeks, maintaining a position below R18 per dollar.

An improved exchange rate means it is cheaper to buy and import oil, translating to better prices at the pump next month.

Unfortunately, the rand’s good performance is likely coming to an end, as its value dropped to R17.93 per dollar in the final week of July.

According to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, the weaker trade is being driven by unsettled markets around the new “Liberation Day” and incoming interest rate announcements.

The tariffs will severely impact the competitiveness of South African exports, particularly motor vehicles, leading to reduced economic activity.

“If a trade deal is not reached for South Africa with tariffs around 15%, the impact of tariffs on the domestic currency would be negative,” Bishop said.

On a related note, the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has yet to reveal its next policy move, which will determine whether the country will receive another 25-basis-point interest rate cut.