What to expect from petrol prices in South Africa this Wednesday

South Africans who need to fill up their cars may want to wait a few more days to do so, as the latest petrol price adjustments are set to take place on Wednesday, 4 June.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund shows that prices at the pump are set to drop this week, though not by much.

The main driver of the lower prices is a welcome improvement in the rand/US dollar exchange rate.

On 13 May 2025, the rand was trading at R18.29/dollar, but this has since dropped to R17.95/dollar as of 2 June.

Another contributor is the international trading price of Brent Crude oil, which has come down slightly over the past month.

The valuable liquid previously sold for $66.63 per barrel as of 13 May, but this has since dropped to $63.48 per barrel.

The lower prices are attributed to a decision made by OPEC+ nations this past weekend to sharply increase crude oil production for the third month in a row, with the end goal of reaching 411,000 barrels per day by July.

The result of these positive developments is that petrol prices are set to drop by 20c per litre this week, while diesel prices will decline by 52c per litre.

Unfortunately, these decreases are being mitigated by the recent decision to raise the General Fuel Levy (GFL), the single largest tax placed on fuel in South Africa.

The GFL will add 16c per litre to the cost of petrol, while diesel is being hit with a similar 15c per litre increase.

Accounting for these inputs, fuel prices this Wednesday are expected to be adjusted as follows:

• Petrol 93 – Decrease of 4c a litre
• Petrol 95 – Decrease of 4c a litre
• Diesel 0.05% – Decrease of 37c a litre
• Diesel 0.005% – Decrease of 37c a litre

It should be noted that these predictions are not the official changes that will be made by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on 4 June.

The final changes could be higher or lower as they are also subject to potential changes in the Slate Levy, taxes, transport and storage costs, or wholesale and retail margins.

First time in 3 years

This June will mark the first time the GFL has been increased in three years, as the levy was previously frozen as part of a pandemic-era consumer relief measure.

The decision to raise the GFL follows the government’s scrapping of the proposed VAT hike, which received widespread backlash from opposition parties and the public.

Instead, the GFL will now be raised to account for a budgetary shortfall, impacting the retail price of fuel in South Africa.

The levy currently adds R3.85 to the cost of petrol and R3.70 to diesel, but these figures will soon be increased by 16c and 15 per litre, respectively.

Consequently, the GFL will be pegged at R4.01 per litre for petrol and R3.85 per litre for diesel once the new adjustments take effect this Wednesday.

Luckily, the Road Accident Fund (RAF) levy – the country’s second largest fuel tax – is not being adjusted.

Like the GFL, the RAF levy has not been adjusted for three years, and is currently set at R2.18 per litre for petrol.

The RAF argues that this figure needs to be adjusted to account for inflation, but the levy has been left untouched for the time being.