What to expect from petrol prices in South Africa this Wednesday

Motorists are advised to fill up their tanks today or tomorrow before the price of fuel goes up later this week.

According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, the cost of both diesel and petrol is set to increase when the new fuel price adjustments come into effect on Wednesday, 2 July.

Unfortunately, both fuels going up by a fairly significant amount, with diesel users being hit particularly hard.

Diesel is predicted to go up by at least 82c per litre, while petrol is being hiked by at least 52c per litre.

It’s also worth noting that the price of diesel is unregulated, which means the final retail margin can vary widely depending on the service station.

Compounding the cost issue is the fact that diesel 500ppm is the fuel most commonly used by commercial transports, meaning that the increase is likely to impact the shelf price of goods in South Africa.

Reason for the higher prices

The primary reason for July’s expected price hikes is the fluctuating cost of oil, which is driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

On 13 June 2025, Israel began what it described as pre-emptive missile attacks against Iran to sabotage the latter’s nuclear weapons development programme.

Iran, a major oil-producing nation, then retaliated with missile strikes of its own, targeting Tel Aviv and other areas in Israel.

This rapid escalation between the two nations led to a spike in the international trading price of oil, which was trading at $68 per barrel prior to the attacks.

The situation escalated further when the United Stated got involved in the conflict with bomber strikes that took out several of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iran later retaliated by firing at a US Air Force base located in Qatar.

At the height of the conflict, a Bloomberg analysis estimated oil prices could surge anywhere from $77 to $130 per barrel, depending on how much longer the events would continue to play out.

However, the region has since agreed to a ceasefire, and the oil price is beginning to stabilize as OPEC continues to ease supply restrictions on its member nations.

Oil is currently trading at $68 per barrel just as it was prior to the conflict. However, the market has yet to recover from the price shock.

On a domestic level, the rand weakened against the US dollar during the week of the conflict, but has since rebounded to R17.78 per dollar.

Accounting for these inputs, fuel prices this Wednesday are expected to be adjusted as follows:

• Petrol 93 – Increase of 52c a litre
• Petrol 95 – Increase of 55c a litre
• Diesel 0.05% – Increase of 84c a litre
• Diesel 0.005% – Increase of 82c a litre

It should be noted that these predictions are not the official changes that will be made by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on 2 July.

The final changes could be higher or lower as they are also subject to potential changes in the Slate Levy, taxes, transport and storage costs, or wholesale and retail margins.