Bad news about petrol prices in South Africa

South Africa is looking at a fuel price hike this December.

While November welcomed a reduction in the cost of the precious liquid, mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) previously indicated that petrol would see a negative recovery this holiday season, heralding a small price hike of around 14c to 19c per litre.

Unfortunately, conditions have deteriorated since these figures were published, as the CEF’s new data for the beginning of the fourth week of November shows South Africa is in for a slightly larger price hike next month.

The CEF’s latest data, published on 24 November, shows an under-recovery of between 19c and 24c per litre for petrol, while diesel is looking at a steeper under-recovery of between 72c and 89c per litre.

Below are the CEF’s predicted fuel price adjustments for December 2025 at the start of week four:

• Petrol 93 – increase of 19 cents per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of 24 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of 72 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of 89 cents per litre

Note that these figures are estimates and are still subject to change before the official fuel price adjustments take effect in the first week of December.

The two main factors affecting the local price of fuel are the international oil price and the US dollar rand exchange rate, as the latter influences the cost of importing oil.

According to Investec, the rand has been unsteady this past month with the US dollar exchange rate briefly falling below R17.00/USD before dropping to a high of nearly R17.50/USD.

“The rand has been volatile, and while it could strengthen to R17.00/USD again, the domestic currency remains beholden to global events, reaching R17.47/USD recently on SA’s interest rate cut and initially receding chance of one in the US.”

The exchange rate has since improved to R17.24/USD, contributing to an over-recovery of roughly 3c to 4c per litre.

As for the international oil price, a barrel of Brent Crude is currently trading for around 63$ per barrel, following the news that Ukraine agreed to the terms of a revised peace deal meant to end Russia’s war in the country.

“US and Ukrainian officials have been negotiating in Geneva after an initial draft of a peace plan surfaced late last week. Meanwhile, US and Russian delegations are in Abu Dhabi for meetings as President Donald Trump cited progress on his proposal and Moscow and Ukraine carried out airstrikes overnight,” reported Bloomberg.

An end to the conflict would have major implications for the global oil market.

“Russia is one of the world’s top producers and its flows are heavily sanctioned by the US, European Union and UK.”

“It’s still far from certain, though, that Russia will accept a revised plan that cut several points from the initial proposal following input from European officials.”

Last week, the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil, resulting in a new global trading price of 63$ per barrel, which is higher than what the commodity was selling for one month prior.

The silver lining is that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been increasing its output over the last few months, boosting supply faster than demand is growing, which is expected to yield lower prices over the coming months.

With all of these factors in mind, this is likely what South Africans will be paying at the pumps this December: