The cost of petrol and diesel is set to increase dramatically next month, following the devastating attacks throughout the Middle East this past weekend.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, petrol prices are facing an under-recovery of up to R1.30 per litre.
The situation is even more severe for diesel, which shows an under-recovery of R2.35 per litre.
While these price increase estimates are very early in the month and are not a guarantee of the final fuel price adjustments that will be made in April, they are an indicator of how the attacks in the Middle East have disrupted the global energy market for crude oil and natural gas.
This past weekend (Saturday 28 February – Sunday 1 March 2026), the United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran that killed several high-ranking officials in Iran’s leadership, including its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran retaliated by launching drone and missile across the Middle East, targeting US allies and military assets in countries like the U.A.E, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria.
The Iranian-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen has also claimed it will abandon its ceasefire and resume attacking shipping routes.
Economists and political analysts have warned that the conflict is likely to escalate and that the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader will lead to prolonged instability.
The immediate effect is that the attacks have taken their toll on the global oil price, which has surged to $82 per barrel.
Oil was previously trading at under $60 per barrel at the start of 2026, which escalated to $70 per barrel in February when the United States’ foreign policy and expanded military presence began to raise tensions in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump later declared that there is no fixed timeline for the war. He also refused to rule out the possibility of deploying American troops in the field.
“Whatever the time is, it’s okay — whatever it takes,” Trump said on Monday.
“Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks. But we have the capability to go far longer than that.”
Economists have warned that this could spark a wave of inflation worldwide.
In South Africa, National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse downplayed the local impact, claiming that the higher oil price is being offset by the rise in gold prices.
However, he did admit that the war could impact South Africa if it has a lasting effect on global growth and oil prices.
It was good while it lasted
2026 got off to a positive start, with petrol prices dropping in January to a four-year low of R20.64 per litre for petrol 95.
This momentum continued into February, which saw prices drop another 65c per litre to reach a low of R20.10 per litre.
Sadly, this is not the case for March, as petrol is going up by 20c per litre today while diesel is taking a hit of 65c per litre.
While the CEF’s April predictions are just that, it still does not bode well for the price of fuel next month.
Starting the month with such a high under-recovery means that the market will need to see a drastic improvement over the coming weeks to ensure that fuel prices don’t drop further into the red.
This is not helped by the fact that the government’s latest fuel tax increases are scheduled to take effect on 1 April 2026.
South Africa’s fuel taxes will collectively go up by 21c per litre to generate additional revenue for the General Fuel Levy, Road Accident Fund Levy, and Carbon tax.
This means that a partial fuel price increase is unavoidable next month, even if the global oil market makes a miraculous turnaround.
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