South Africa could be facing a petrol price hike of up to R8 per litre this April.
According to Biznews’s Alec Hogg, the cost of Brent Crude oil has skyrocketed over the last week, going from R954 per barrel to R1,328 per barrel.
This has been exacerbated by the rand, which has weakening against the US dollar.
“The higher price of oil is particularly important here in South Africa. Our petrol and diesel prices are based on the rand cost of oil,” he said.
“That has surged this week, and the rand weakened. That’s a jump of 40% since the war began and translates into an R8-a-litre shock.”
Hogg isn’t the only one sounding the alarm over meteoric price increases next month.
Paisley Nardini, portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, said oil could easily surpass $100 (R1,661) per barrel if the conflict in the Middle East continues.
Similarly, Bloomberg economics chief Jenny Welsh said that the price of oil could reach $108 (R1,794) per barrel.
“If there are going to be sustained, persistent disruptions to energy facilities in the region of the Strait of Hormuz, that could actually lead oil prices to top $100. We estimate reaching up to $108,” she said.
“That’s not where markets are today, and we think that’s probably because they think that these will be short-term disruptions.”
Unfortunately, Welsh estimates that the tensions in the Middle East will lead to a prolonged conflict.
If the situation doesn’t improve and the price of oil continues to rise, South Africans may be in for record-high petrol prices.
Right now, the cost of fuel is sitting at R20.19 and R20.30 per litre for petrol 93 and 95, respectively, following the latest fuel price adjustments that kicked in on Wednesday, 4 March 2026.
If the predictions hold true, these costs will balloon to R28.19 and R28.30 per litre.
Diesel won’t fare much better, as prices are expected to jump from R18.53 for diesel 0.05% and R18.60 for diesel 0.005%, to R26.53 per litre and R26.20 per litre, respectively.
At the start of the month, Israel and the United States launched attacks against Iran that killed several of its high ranking officials, including its Supreme Leader.
Iran has retaliated, attacking the US and its allies across the Middle East.
The conflict has disrupted oil production and shipping, as the Strait of Hormuz has been closed.
This is a critical supply channel where roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through on a daily basis.
On Tuesday, 2 March 2026, senior advisor to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ commander-in-chief, Ebrahim Jabari, warned that vessels travelling through the strait will be set alight.
“The strait is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze,” he said.
Adding salt to the wound
The spike in global oil prices coincides with the South African government’s plans to raise fuel taxes in April.
During the 2026 Budget Speech, Finance minister Enoch Godongwana proposed increasing the Road Accident Fund (RAF) levy and General Fuel Levy (GFL).
From 1 April 2026, the GFL will increase by R0.9 per litre for petrol and R0.08 for diesel.
The RAF levy will receive a similar increase of R0.07 per litre for both fuels.
“Fuel prices have remained subdued, and it is proposed that from 1 April, the general fuel levy is increased by less than inflation to R4.10/litre for petrol and R3.93/litre for diesel,” Treasury said in its budget review.
“The RAF levy will be increased by 7c/litre to R2.25/litre from 1 April, in line with expected inflation, while the customs and excise levies remain unchanged.”
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