The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has left oil tankers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to oil prices escalating and potential shortages in South Africa.
Our sister publication, MyBroadband, spoke to fuel station owners and a source within the shipping industry to learn more about potential local fuel shortages.
None of the petrol station owners had received any official confirmation regarding sales limits from suppliers, but all of them believe that imminent shortages are likely.
Their source with information on ship movements along South Africa’s east coast said that Engen has temporarily rationed upliftments in Gqeberha and Durban.
A spokesperson for Vivo Energy, which owns Engen, did not confirm nor deny to MyBroadband that it had begun limiting purchases, adding that it was closely monitoring the situation.
Vivo Energy said it is committed to maintaining product availability and serving its retail and long-term contractual commercial customers.
Regarding the conflict, it said, “The military escalation in the Middle East has created uncertainty and volatility in global oil markets. We will provide further updates should the situation materially affect product delivery.”
Conflict in the Middle East, particularly the strikes on Iran, has affected petroleum production and exports, as well as slowed exports severely.
More than 100 ships, including oil tankers, remain stuck before the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean.
Another roughly 100 ships headed into the Gulf to collect oil and petroleum, amongst other goods, were stranded on the other side of the strait.
The escalating conflict has led to around 20% of the world’s oil and petroleum product supply being cut off, as ships have become hesitant to enter the strait in fear of becoming targets of bombings and other attacks.
Impacting fuel prices
More than two-thirds of South Africa’s refined petrol and diesel is imported from the Middle East, this is according to the 2024 South African Energy Trade Report.
While Oman, our biggest source of refined petroleum, remains largely unaffected by the conflict and has a large coastline outside the strait, around 40% of the supply from other Gulf nations is being affected.
South Africa’s only other major refined petroleum source is India, which supplied around 27% of imports in 2024.
One positive is that half of local crude imports originate in Nigeria, while other major sources include Angola, Ghana, the Ivory Coast, Greece and the US
However, South Africa cannot avoid massive refined petroleum imports, as local refineries can only process around 250,000 barrels of oil per day, which is less than half the country’s daily usage.
While fuel shortages remain uncertain, petrol and diesel prices will almost certainly increase in April as a result of decreased oil and petroleum production and shipping.
This is also when South Africa’s updated fuel levies will take effect, leading to even steeper increases.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), which was shared on 6 March, the per-litre prices of fuel are expected to increase as follows:
- Unleaded 95 petrol retail — R2.78 increase
- Unleaded 93 petrol retail — R2.60 increase
- Diesel 50ppm wholesale — R5.03 increase
- Diesel 500ppm wholesale — R4.91 increase
These prices may still fluctuate significantly throughout the remainder of March and likely depend on how long the conflict in the Middle East continues.
US President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the war in Iran may be short-lived, claiming that it will be “over quickly”.
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