The price of petrol is expected to go up by roughly R5 per litre this April.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has deteriorated with oil prices skyrocketing to $112 per barrel within the last few days, raising the cost of importing the precious liquid.
This has been exacerbated by a weaker rand and South Africa’s plans to raise fuel taxes next month, resulting in significant price hikes for motorists.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, South Africa is now set to experience the following fuel price hikes on Wednesday, 1 April next week.
- Petrol 95 – Increase of R4.94 per litre
- Petrol 93 – Increase of R4.44 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% – Increase of R8.05 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% – Increase of R8.16 per litre
This means that the price of petrol 95 will increase from R20.19 per litre (inland rate March 2026) to R25.13 per litre this April.
This massive jump in prices is the result of several factors, starting with the United States and Israel’s war against Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane that accounts for around a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply, remains closed to most maritime traffic, driving oil prices higher.
On Sunday, 22 March 2026, US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, giving the Islamic Republic 48 hours to re-open the strait before the US “obliterates” the country’s energy infrstructure.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded, stating that it will completely shut the strait if the US follows through on its threats.
This escalation has driven oil prices to over $110 per barrel, which directly impacts South Africa as a net importer of oil, as roughly half of the final retail price paid by motorists is the Basic Fuel Price determined by oil costs.
At the same time, the conflict has had a negative impact on the rand, as the uncertainty has scared off global investors, causing many to return to safe-haven assets like the US dollar.
Consequently, the dollar’s strength has greatly improved since the start of the conflict with exchange rates now sitting at R17.20 per dollar as of Monday, 23 March.
For context, the rand was in a good position at the start of 2026 with the exchange rate dropping to a low of under R15 per dollar.
Fuel tax increases still happening
Despite nationwide concerns over the impending fuel price increase, the government still plans to raise fuel taxes next month.
In his 2026 Budget Speech, Enoch Godongwana announced that the General Fuel Levy (GFL), Carbon Fuel Levy, and Road Accident Fund (RAF) Levy will be adjusted this April in line with inflation.
Fuel taxes collectively make up around a third of the final retail price of fuel paid by consumers.
It is also a cost that the government has direct control over, unlike the global oil price and US dollar/rand exchange rate.
Groups like AfriForum are calling on the government to implement relief measures for motorists to offset the fuel price increase, as has happened before during events like the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the fuel price hikes appear to be going ahead, as the National Treasury recently stated that there is little room for the government to mitigate the blow consumers will face.
Treasury director-general Duncan Pieterse said last week that it would cost the government millions of rands to offset April’s fuel price increase.
“Unless you have those kind of resources, which currently we do not have available as part of our fiscal buffers, you are either looking at no relief, or you’re looking at a very small amount of relief,” the Treasury’s director-general, Duncan Pieterse, said.
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