Government running out of time to prevent petrol price disaster in South Africa

South Africa has less than 24 hours to go before April’s enormous petrol and diesel hikes are expected to kick in.

The official fuel price adjustments are usually on the first Wednesday of every month, which unfortunately lines up with 1 April 2026.

Motorists around the country are bracing for what is expected to be record-high price hikes for petrol and especially diesel, as the war in the Middle East continues to wreak havoc on international oil prices.

Since the conflict began, the cost of Brent Crude has soared from around $69 per barrel to $115 per barrel.

At the same time, the rand has depreciated against the US dollar, dropping from R15.85 to over R17 per USD.

Both of these factors mean that it will be much more expensive to purchase and import oil, even though South Africa receives a large portion of its fuel from Nigeria, which isn’t directly impacted by the war with Iran.

Compounding this issue is the fact that the government is supposed to raise fuel taxes this April.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana previously announced during the 2026 Budget Speech that the state would raise the General Fuel Levy (GFL), Road Accident Fund (RAF) Levy, and Carbon Levy in line with inflation.

However, the government is now under immense pressure to implement relief measures to cushion the blow consumers will face at the pump tomorrow.

Government needs to decide whether it’ll bite the bullet

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has yet to announce the official fuel price adjustments for April, even though they are scheduled to take effect tomorrow.

This is quite late for the department, and is most likely an indication that the government is holding off on making an official announcement until it can present some form of relief measure.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund indicates that petrol will go up by R6 per litre, while diesel is facing an unprecedented hike of R10 per litre.

Several industry stakeholders and civil action groups have called on the state to temporarily pause the country’s fuel taxes,

However, this puts the government in a difficult position, as it now has to weight the cost of providing immediate relief to consumers against a fiscus loss of approximately R8 billion per month.

NWU Business School economist Professor Raymond Parsons stated that consumers are in for a “triple price shock” – the result of the spike in global oil prices, the higher fuel levies, and the increased Eskom tariffs.

Since the global oil price is out of the government’s control, attention has been focused on something it can change – fuel taxes.

Fuel taxes and levies make up roughly a third of the retail price of petrol and diesel, which has become a point of frustration for motorists in recent years now that prices in excess of R20 per litre are considered the norm.

The GFL, RAF Levy, and Carbon Levy are supposed to collectively go up by 21c per litre this April.

However, stakeholders argue that the state should implement the same relief measures it did shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

“South Africa’s petrol prices did the same, and the government temporarily held the levy back by R1.50 and later R0.75 per litre,” said the Bureau for Economic Research’s Lisette IJssel de Schepper.

She pointed out that the government received about R8.1 billion per month in levies in 2025/2026, equating to a total haul of R97.3 billion.

For the 2026/2027 financial year, the National Treasury estimates that fuel taxes will generate R104.87 billion in annual revenue – around R8.74 billion per month.

On Sunday 29 March, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that Godongwana and other ministers have been instructed to urgently develop interventions to reduce the impact on consumers and the broader economy.

“I have instructed Minister Godongwana and his colleagues to address this matter and develop solutions,” he said.

However, the president didn’t clarify what solutions these could be, and considering that the exhange rate and global oil price are out of the state’s control, a temporary fuel tax cut may be the only viable option that can be implemented on short notice.