Bad to worse for petrol prices in South Africa

The price of petrol is expected to increase again this June, though diesel users may see a small amount of relief.

The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF’s) latest data for the end of the first week of May 2026 indicates that petrol prices will experience an under-recovery of between 82 and 84 cents per litre next month.

Diesel, on the other hand, is showing an over-recovery of between 166c and 248c per litre.

This is a notable swing for diesel, following months of hikes that collectively raised the cost of the fuel by over R13 per litre

These are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions for the end of the first week of May:

• Petrol 93 – increase of 84 cents per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of 88 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – decrease of R2.49 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – decrease of R1.66 per litre

Unfortunately, this positive development will be undermined by the reintroduction of fuel taxes in June.

Additionally, oil prices have deteriorated over the last few days due to the collapse of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Iran responded to the USA’s latest peace proposal with its own terms, stating that America’s plan demanded Iran’s “surrender to Trump’s greed,” according to Al Jazeera.

US President Donald Trump responded on Sunday, 10 May, declaring that the counter proposal was “totally unacceptable” in a post on Truth Social.

This has had an immediate effect on oil prices, as the cost of Brent Crude dropped to a low of $94 per barrel on 7 May.

Following the breakdown in negotiations, oil prices have increased to $100 per barrel.

For the oil market, the focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for petroleum products leaving the Middle East.

The strait has effectively been closed since the war began in late February, and the head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is losing roughly 14 million barrels of oil per day.

On a more positive note, the rand has largely maintained its value against the US dollar, trading at around R16.49 per dollar over the past week, and making a small improvement in the cost of fuel.

The end result is that the current oil price is expected to make a positive contribution to diesel recoveries, though petrol is still in the red.

Petrol 95 daily projection for June 2026

Diesel 0.05% daily projection for June 2026

Fuel taxes coming back

The bad news is that the official fuel price predictions do not account for South Africa’s fuel taxes, which have been heavily reduced over the past two months to provide relief to consumers.

The General Fuel Levy will be re-added in stages, starting in June, adding R1.50 per litre to the cost of petrol and R1.97 per litre to the cost of diesel.

This means that the true petrol increase is closer to between R2.34 and R2.38 per litre.

Diesel, meanwhile, will experience a much smaller reduction of 51c for 0.05%, and an increase of 31c per litre for 0.005% after taxes.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in June once the General Fuel Levy is factored in: