The large majority of vehicles on South Africa’s roads, over 42%, are between the ages of 11 and 20-years old.
This group is followed by vehicles between the ages of 6 to 10-years old, which accounts for roughly 30%, and after this comes the 0 to 5-years old age band, which is responsible for around 23%.
In comparison, in 2012, cars between the ages of 11 and 20 only accounted for 33% of the country’s entire vehicle population.
Declining sales
According to Lightstone Auto, a large reason for this tectonic shift in the average age of automobiles is due to declining sales figures for new vehicles over the last 10 years.
“New vehicle sales over the last decade have struggled to reach the levels enjoyed between 2005 and 2008, despite a bit of respite between 2012 and 2015,” said Pieter Wessels, Lightstone Auto managing director.
“And the relatively lower levels of sales have been further impacted in the last two years by the measures taken by the government in response to Covid-19.”
The below graph shows the aggregate new vehicle sales in the country since 2012, in relation to the total domestic vehicle population (parc).
Passenger vehicles, not including bakkies, account for a substantial two-thirds of the parc, and are therefore a good indication of overall market trends, said Wessels.
If the age fluctuations for this vehicle segment are taken in isolation, they reveal interesting trends in local car-buying preferences over the previous decade.
“If one were to compare the actual passenger age band volumes for the two-year windows from 2012 to present, it becomes easier to track the performance of each band relative to the other years,” said Wessels.
“While the volume of vehicles in the 21 to 30-year band has remained relatively constant, the 11 to 20-year group has grown steadily over the past 10 years, assisted by the ageing of the vehicles purchased in the 2005 to 2008 bubble.”
Due to the 2008 and later 2012 car-buying frenzies, the 6 to 10-year age band has also fluctuated heavily in the past few years as these vehicles move in and out of this age group.
On the other hand, the 0 to 5-year-old band reached peak market share in 2016 and has been steadily shrinking over the course of the intervening years, pointing to the fact that new vehicles are not as high in demand anymore.
“With the market growth expected in 2022, the youngest passenger band should begin to recover in the next few years, once again allowing for a decrease in the average age of vehicles on the South African roads,” said Wessels.
The below graph shows the number of vehicles within a certain age group in South Africa over the last 10 years.
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