Petrol prices expected to come down in October – but not diesel

The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) mid-month fuel price data shows that as of 14 September, petrol prices in South Africa could significantly decrease in October while diesel prices are likely to increase.

If current market conditions persist, petrol is expected to come down by up to R1.31 per litre next month whereas diesel prices are expected to go up by as much as 66 cents per litre, reported BusinessTech.

These anticipated changes take into account exchange rate data for the month of September as well as any changes in international petroleum product prices, but do not consider factors such as slate levy adjustments and retail margin changes.

The expected fuel prices changes for October 2022 are therefore as follows:

• Petrol 93 – Decrease of R1.22 per litre
• Petrol 95 – Decrease of R1.31 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% – Increase of 59 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% – Increase of 66 cents per litre
• Illuminating Paraffin – Decrease of 1 cent per litre

However, the CEF notes that these are not the official price adjustments that will come into effect next month. The official changes will be gazetted before the increase arrives and will account for the whole month’s data.

Global factors affecting South African fuel prices

Easing global petroleum product prices have been the biggest driver behind the downtrend in South Africa’s fuel prices in recent months.

Oil prices are on course to fall even further towards the end of the quarter due to China’s decreased oil demand as well as expectations that the US Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy to tame inflation.

Conversely, September saw the local currency lose significant strength against the US dollar which has hamstrung the positive impact of the reduced international oil prices.

This was due to both the US and some European markets pushing up interest rates.

The rand is mostly affected by global conditions meaning that it could end the year above the R17/dollar mark if the current market climate persists, which would not bode well for its part in lowering South Africa’s fuel prices.