As of 14 February 2023, petrol prices in South Africa are set for an increase of R1.26 per litre come March, with diesel prices looking to rise by up to 38 cents per litre.
The data, as published by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) and reported by BusinessTech, takes into account fluctuations in the rand/US dollar exchange rate and international oil prices over the first two weeks of the month, both of which have been performing unfavourably.
According to the CEF, South African fuel prices are expected to be adjusted as follows on the first Wednesday of March:
- Petrol 93 – Increase of R1.26 per litre
- Petrol 95 – Increase of R1.20 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% – Increase of 37 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% – Increase of 38 cents per litre
These predictions only serve as indications of what the fuel price will do in the current economic landscape, but are not the official changes that will come into effect next month. The final adjustments will account for the entire month’s data including any possible changes in the Slate Levy and retail margins.
Therefore, March’s fuel price adjustments could look significantly different if market conditions change before then. For example, January’s mid-month snapshot pointed towards a drop in prices for the next month, however, the market turned unfavourable by the time February rolled around and prices ended up rising for all but one of the fuel types in the country.
Factors affecting South African fuel prices
Oil prices have been unpredictable in the past months, severely affecting South African fuel prices as the country heavily relies on imported petroleum.
Recently, the price of this commodity has been fluctuating between $85 to $87 per barrel, with analysts predicting that it could rise to over $90 or even $100 in the not-so-distant future.
As of mid-February, these impacts will add between 2 and 94 cents to each litre of fuel sold in the country in March.
Another pressing matter that has contributed to the rise in domestic fuel prices has been a depreciating rand.
The South African currency is currently trading at approximately R18/US dollar after sitting closer to R17.10/US dollar at the start of February, owing to global factors such as a stronger dollar as well as local impacts including loadshedding and floods.
This has led to an under-recovery in fuel prices in February thus far of between 31 and 35 cents per litre.
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