New mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol prices won’t rise as much as previously anticipated this May.
The CEF’s latest data shows that petrol prices are now set for an under-recovery of between R2.62 and R2.99 per litre.
While this is still a substantial hike, the projected price increase has been on a downward trend this April.
At the start of the month, petrol was expected to go up by between R4.29 and R4.69 per litre.
This decreased to between R3.25 and R3.63 per litre at the end of the first week, which has dropped again to R2.62 per litre.
Diesel has seen a similar improvement, though this has unfortunately not been enough to offset what is likely to be a record hike.
The CEF now estimates that diesel will experience an under-recovery of between R9.05 and R9.07 in May.
This would put the wholesale price of diesel at R35 per litre, shattering the record set this April.
The silver lining is that this is an improvement over the previous estimates, as diesel was previously expected to increase by R13.12, and later by R10.84 per litre.
All of this will likely be of little comfort to motorists, however, as the current hikes are still enormous.
These are the projected fuel increases for May 2026, based on CEF data:
- Petrol 93 – increase of 262 cents per litre
- Petrol 95 – increase of 299 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of 905 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of 907 cents per litre
Petrol 95 is currently sitting at R23.36 at inland rates, following April’s increases.
The current hike would put the price at R26.35, which is only slightly less than the record of R26.74 set in July 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The true price may be worse, however, as the CEF’s estimates to not account for the General Fuel Levy (GFL).
The National Treasury slashed the GFL by R3 per litre at the start of April to soften the blow to motorists, but this is a temporary measure that is scheduled to end in May.
The government has made no indication that it will renew this tax cut. Instead, it promised that it is investigating other relief measures, but these are likely to be long-term fixes like reviewing the fuel price formula.
Finance minister Enoch Godongwana said that the GFL reduction cost the fiscus R6 billion, and that this will need to be recovered in the future to be budget neutral.
Note that the above-mentioned price increases are a prediction and not necessarily the final result motorists will see at the pump.
This will only be confirmed by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources a few days before the adjustments take effect on the first Wednesday of the month.
Oil price is better, but still not good
The main reason for the under-recovery in petrol and diesel costs is the global oil price.
At the time of writing, the United States and Iran are still in a ceasefire and have engaged in talks to end the war, though little progress appears to have been made on this front.
While the final outcome is uncertain, the ceasefire has allowed the oil market to stabilise.
Prior to the war, Brent Crude oil was trading at under $60 per barrel. After the US attacks in late February, prices skyrocketed to over $110 per barrel.
As of mid-April 2026, prices have dropped to $91 per barrel, which is a noticeable improvement, though the situation in the Middle East remains volatile.
According to Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop, the current hope is that there will be a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, removing a major barrier to global oil trade.
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