R13-per-litre diesel price increase on the cards for South Africa

Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected both the price and supply of petrol products, with May’s outlook pointing to a nearly R5-per-litre hike in petrol and R13 hike for diesel.

This is according to unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) at the start of the second week of April.

While last week’s indicators painted a much bleaker picture, nearly R8 per litre for petrol and over R17 per litre for diesel, the latest possible increase is not looking much better.

The CEF is currently showing an under-recovery of R4.69 per litre for 95 octane petrol, and R13.12 per litre for 0.005% diesel.

According to the current data from the Central Energy Fund, South Africa is set to experience the following fuel price hikes on 6 May:

• Petrol 93 – Increase of R4.29 per litre
• Petrol 95 – Increase of R4.69 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% – Increase of R13.07 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% – Increase of R13.12 per litre

These potential increases can be attributed to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which forced petroleum product refiners to halt production and limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries 20% of the world’s oil supply.

That being said, the CEF’s fuel price data is based on the average recovery of the basic fuel price, and can change throughout the month, right up to the official announcement.

Even so, it would take massive international changes to rescue South Africa’s motorists from what may be another massive petrol and diesel price spike.

Should these indicators remain unchanged, the price of petrol 95 will increase from R23.36 per litre (inland price for April 2026) to R28.05 per litre next month.

Diesel consumers will have to prepare for a bigger hike if diesel 0.005% increases from R26.11 per litre to R39.23 per litre in May.

Fuel levy decreases offer little reprieve

Effective 1 April, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced a temporary R3 per litre General Fuel Levy (GFL) cut to reduce massive fuel price hikes in South Africa.

This was done to protect consumers expecting an increase of over R6 per litre at the start of this month.

Despite the relief, petrol prices increased by R3.06 per litre for both octanes in April, while diesel prices rose by between R7.37 and R7.51 per litre.

While welcomed, the decision to announce the levy reduction alongside the fuel price adjustment was criticised for its timing.

The Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse (OUTA) said that South African citizens and businesses were left in the dark, even when the scale of the impending increases became clear well before the month-end.

“Government cannot keep reacting at the last minute while households and businesses carry the uncertainty,” declared OUTA CEO Wayne Duvenage.

“This relief is welcome, but it should have been communicated earlier to allow people to plan and absorb the impact.”

He added that earlier intervention would have reduced public panic and helped citizens plan, which may have softened the blow.

OUTA said that the levy decrease will reduce immediate pressure, but only acts as a temporary fix and not a viable long-term solution.

The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) added that further intervention is needed, given that no one knows when the Middle East conflict will be resolved.

It believes that the most important source of relief would be the further reduction of fuel taxes and levies.

“This is the most impactful and cost-effective solution to this global crisis, and additional relief should be sought by making public transport more affordable to commuters,” added the union.