Early warning signs for September petrol prices in South Africa

Following the latest petrol price adjustment, which was a mixed bag for South African motorists, early data indicates potential fuel price surges across the board in September.

The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) data for the first week of August show potentially massive under-recoveries in petrol and diesel prices.

Both grades of unleaded petrol are currently expected to increase by around R1 per litre, while diesel prices could climb by around R5 per litre next month.

This follows renewed tensions between the US and Iran, with negotiations surrounding the free flow of commodities through the Strait of Hormuz hitting a roadblock.

Accordingly, oil prices rose sharply after the biggest drop in a week. Brent crude oil prices are hovering around $85 per barrel, down from over $100 just over a week ago; it is a far cry from the $70 it hit at the start of July.

Below are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions as of 4 August:

• Petrol 93 – increase of R0.90 per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of R1.01 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R4.85 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R4.96 per litre

One of the biggest factors affecting oil prices is the US dollar/rand exchange rate, which is currently sitting at around R16.50 to the dollar, having neared R17 a week ago.

While this represents a slight recovery, it is significantly higher than the R15.50 it reached mid-July, which can be attributed to the dollar strengthening on the back of the Middle East conflict.

Cancelling August’s decreases

Petrol prices decreased by around 50c per litre at the start of August, while diesel increased by R1.23 and R1.38 per litre, respectively.

September’s outlook seems to suggest this minor relief for petrol motorists will be short-lived, as the pain may very well compound for diesel drivers.

It must be noted that this is very early data, and the situation in the Middle East may well turn again in the coming weeks before the official adjustments are made.

However, the Central Energy Fund’s figures do provide a snapshot of what may occur over the review period, but do not represent the final fuel price adjustments that will take place next month.

The official adjustment figures will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) before they take effect on Wednesday, 2 September 2026.

The following table shows how inland fuel prices will be affected in September, based on the current projections:

September’s fuel price adjustments may very well send the wholesale diesel price back over R30 per litre, but it remains to be seen what the rest of August looks like before this is confirmed.