Petrol price takes a turn for the worse in South Africa

August’s fuel price projections are off to a bad start, with petrol and diesel both set to rise at the start of September.

This is according to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the end of the first week of August, which shows an under-recovery for both fuels, with diesel users being hit particularly hard.

Petrol is currently showing an under-recovery of between 40c and 51c per litre, undoing the progress made by previous price cuts.

Diesel, meanwhile, is looking at a substantial hike of between R3.11 and R3.22 per litre, pushing the wholesale price close to R30 per litre.

This unfortunate trend is a symptom of the ongoing troubles in the Middle East. Brent Crude oil is currently trading at $81.75 per barrel and is expected to increase over the coming days.

These are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions as the end of the first week of August:

• Petrol 93 – increase of R0.40 per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of R0.51 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R3.11 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R3.22 per litre

It should be noted that it is still early in the month, and these projections are likely to change; however, they serve as an important indication of the direction the market is trending.

The United States and Iran have paused direct military actions, though the situation is still volatile. Iran is currently negotiating with Oman about reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Tehran wants to ban US and Israeli ships from passing through the critical waterway, and impose a toll for ships from other nations that Iran considers hostile.

While oil prices are a cause for concern, the silver lining is that the rand is holding its value against the US dollar, which will help to lower the price of importing petroleum products.

The rand has proved resilient against the greenback over the last week, hovering at around R16.35 per USD.

Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop, said that global currencies should improve moving into the final stretch of 2026, but only if the conflict in the Middle East does not erupt into prolonged fighting again.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in September, based on the current projections: