Petrol prices are fast approaching R30 per litre in South Africa, as another sizeable hike is on the cards this October.
New data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the fourth week of September shows that petrol and diesel are both set for a massive under-recovery next month due to the high cost of oil.
Petrol is now facing an under-recovery of between R2.66 and R2.83 per litre, while diesel is looking at an under-recovery of between R2.60 and R3.01 per litre.
This is a notable increase over the CEF’s earlier reports, which indicated that petrol and diesel would increase by R1.98 and R2.47 per litre, respectively.
These are the CEF’s latest fuel price adjustment predictions as of the fourth week of September:
- Petrol 93 – increase of R2.66 per litre
- Petrol 95 – increase of R2.83 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R2.60 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R3.01 per litre
Oil prices have fluctuated over the last week in response to developments in the Middle East conflict.
Brent Crude dropped from $108 to $100 per barrel between 15 and 21 September; however, this downward streak has been broken with prices rising once again to $102 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump is set to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York today (Tuesday 22 September), and may meet with his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, on the sidelines, reported Bloomberg.
The talks are unlikely to result in tangible progress to bring the war in the Middle East to an end, given how far apart the US and Iran stand on their demands.
Libya, another major oil producer, saw output at its largest oil field drop by more than 50% after an armed group shut down a pipeline leading to its export terminal.
The UK has agreed to support Saudi Arabia to counter the Iranian-backed Houthis, who are disrupting trade moving through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea.
The result of all these actions is an under-recovery in the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) of roughly 273c to 290c for petrol prices in South Africa.
Offsetting this slightly is the rand/US dollar exchange rate, which is trading at R16.26 per USD, leading to an over-recovery in the BFP of around 7c per litre.
The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in October, based on the current projections:
| Fuel Type | September fuel price | Projected change | Expected fuel price for October |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R26.76 | + R2.66 | R29.42 |
| Petrol 95 | R26.92 | + R2.83 | R29.75 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R29.11 | + R2.60 | R31.71 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R30.05 | + R3.01 | R33.06 |
Petrol 93 price 28 August – 21 September
Petrol 95 price 28 August – 21 September
Diesel 0.05% price 28 August – 21 September
Diesel 0.005% price 28 August – 21 September
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Conversation
1 commentsMy daily trips to work covers 36km x 2 = 72km, at a consumption of 7.69L/100km or 13km/L.
1,400 km ÷ 13 km/L = 107.69 L per month over 20 working days only.
With RON 95 coastal consumption this will be around R3100.56 per month on fuel based on the article.
Estimated 12 months x R3100.56 = R37 206.72 per year.
Over the next 10 years x R37 206.72 = R372 067.20
Time to look at going over to an EV?
The above figures are not economical, without adding maintenance + leisure driving?