The projected petrol and diesel price under-recoveries for November have declined sharply, translating into a much smaller price hike for motorists.
At the start of October, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) warned that South Africa was on track for a R4.57-per-litre petrol price increase, while diesel was facing a hike of up to R2.91 per litre.
Thankfully, these estimates have been on a downward trajectory ever since, with the latest data showing that the under-recoveries for both fuels have more than halved.
Petrol is now expected to increase by R2.06 per litre, while diesel is looking at a R1.38-per-litre hike.
However, while it is a considerable improvement, the fact of the matter is that motorists are still likely to pay more next month.
This is concerning given that fuel prices have already crossed the R30-per-litre mark, pushing South Africa’s pump prices to record highs.
These are the CEF’s latest fuel price adjustment predictions at the end of the third week of October:
- Petrol 93 – increase of R2.07 per litre
- Petrol 95 – increase of R2.06 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R1.32 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R1.38 per litre
Brent Crude oil is currently trading at $105 per barrel due to growing uncertainty about a recovery in physical flows from the Persian Gulf this week.
US Central Command confirmed on Thursday that a container ship that sank in the Strait of Hormuz this week was struck by an Iranian projectile.
International Energy Agency member nations pledged to complete the release of the remaining 100 million barrels from an intervention in March after lobbying from US officials, reported Bloomberg.
The war between Iran and the US shows no signs of being resolved in the near future, with US President Donald Trump declining to rule out the possibility of using “the Mother of all Bombs” on the Islamic Republic after the elections.
However, while a ship sank in the strait after being hit by an Iranian projectile, more than 40 vessels passed through the maritime channel in the last 24 hours, suggesting energy flows are continuing.
The end result of this tumultuous situation is that South Africa is set for a 166c under-recovery in the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) of petrol next month.
Unfortunately, the exchange rate is only making matters worse. The rand has fallen to R16.53 per US dollar, leading to a 40c per litre under-recovery in the BFP of petrol.
The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in November, based on the current projections:
| Fuel Type | October fuel price | Projected change | Expected fuel price for November |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R29.88 | + R2.07 | R31.95 |
| Petrol 95 | R30.25 | + R2.06 | R32.31 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R31.95 | + R1.32 | R33.27 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R33.29 | + R1.38 | R34.67 |
Petrol 93 price 2 October – 15 October
Petrol 95 price 2 October – 15 October
Diesel 0.05% price 2 October – 15 October
Diesel 0.005% price 2 October – 15 October
Loading ...-2026.10.webp)
-2026.10.webp)
Conversation
1 commentsI test drove the Chery Q feels like a good spacious daily work commuter. Made a few estimated sums & calculations: R3.43 per kWh x 42.7 kWh (battery pack capacity) = R 146.46 full charge from empty cells with 2 x chargers per week overlapping 5 working days R146.46 x 2 = R 292.92. So 1 x Charge every 4 days over 72km x 4 days = 288km estimated range depends on road conditions. That should estimate at R36.62 per day. If you translate that to R732.40 per 20 days – EV or R3014.40 per 20 days – ICE. Estimated petrol savings R2282.00 per month.