South Africa’s petrol attendants could soon be out of a job as the world continues its transition to electric vehicles (EVs).
A recent economic bulletin published by Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS), an economic research institution, highlighted the risks that new-energy transport presents to legacy stakeholders in the automotive industry, including petrol stations and those employed by these services.
Adapting to a new environment
While South Africa still hires people who fill your car when you pull into a service station, many Western nations do not, and it is these countries that are leading the push for EVs.
In most of Europe, motorists pump their own fuel, and this mentality carries over to EVs as everyone plugs their own car into public charging outlets.
Furthermore, while petrol hands may also be able to assist with tasks like checking the oil and water of an internal combustion engine (ICE), EVs typically require far less maintenance as they have fewer moving parts.
All of this is bad news for the staff at filling stops, as these jobs may be at risk as the world slowly transitions to electric cars.
Europe is set to ban the sale of ICE models by 2035, and while this may not appear to directly affect South Africa, it will have a dramatic effect on which models are imported here, as well as what local carmakers are able to produce for export.
Coronation analyst Lisa Haakman describes this situation as the Innovator’s Dilemma, as legacy brands are caught between the need to innovate and develop EVs, and safeguard their existing business model and profitability, writes BusinessTech.
Established businesses are often slow to respond to new technologies which can make them obsolete if they fail to adapt, as was the case with brands like Musica, Kodak, Nokia, and Blackberry.
South Africa’s automotive sector is estimated to directly employ 110,000 people across its numerous assembly plants, and another 500,000 are employed at various points in the supply chain, including suppliers, dealerships, and other service providers.
Included in the supply chain are approximately 140,000 petrol attendants, who are at risk of losing their jobs between now and the final shift to the adoption of EVs, according to the TIPS report.
However, the research paper does note that the future is still unclear as there is no fixed timeline for a transition to EVs, globally or locally.
“While the European Parliament approved a ban on fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035, and numerous countries, regions, and companies have committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, different factors make it slightly more complicated to commit to a clear (and even fixed) timeline for a shift away from liquid fuels,” it said.
In South Africa, the cost of EVs is prohibitively expensive relative to the average salary right now, owing to a lack of affordable options and high import tariffs that bloat the final price seen in showrooms.
Even if it is assumed that all new cars sold in South Africa will be electric by 2050, the average age of a model on our roads is 11.8 years old, meaning petrol stations will need to hang around to cater to this subset of the population.
One solution is to build EV chargers at service stations, as they still serve a useful role as stopping points for motorists, complete with convenience stores that employ more people.
Another possibility highlighted by InsideEVs has to do with hydrogen cars, which could serve as an alternative to battery-electric cars and are topped up in much the same way that one does with a petrol or diesel model, meaning that station attendants may be able to hang on in the era of zero-emissions transport.
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