Gautrain passenger numbers collapse – With R120 billion set to go down the drain

Gautrain passenger numbers fell from a total of 13.9 million in the 2019/20 financial year to a dismal 7.9 million in 2023/24.

As a result, the financial sustainability of the commuter rail service has come under increased scrutiny, said Gauteng MEC for finance, Lebogang Maile, during the annual Budget Speech.

The noticeable drop in rider numbers comes amid a planned expansion from 80km to 230km for the Gautrain which the provincial government calculated will cost in the region of R120 billion.

“The expansion of the Gautrain remains a strategic priority for the province, but its financial sustainability has come under increasing scrutiny,” said Maile.

“Ridership levels have yet to recover to pre-pandemic figures, with passenger numbers dropping from 13.9 million in the 2019/2020 financial year to 7.9 million in 2023/2024.”

The numbers become more stark when you consider that the Gautrain originally predicted it would have some 47.5 million riders per year by now, according to a BizNews report.

The numbers peaked in 2017 at 15.6 million riders – less than a third of the original target.

Despite this, the Gauteng authorities anticipate that the Gautrain will be a fully paid-up asset once the current concession expires in March 2026 with an estimated value of R45 billion.

It is thus forging ahead with the expansion, which also includes plans to guarantee the profitability of the service without relying on the built-in Patronage Guarantee System.

Among the proposals are expanding the coverage of Smart Driver’s Licence Testing Centres like those currently available at the Centurion and Midrand stations; and partnering with construction companies to develop the land on which the Gautrain Management Agency has ownership rights for lease to other businesses.

The provincial government is actively looking for a new concessionaire to operate and maintain the Gautrain into the future post-2026.

“We will ensure that while the service is maintained post-2026, it remains within the limits of affordability and continues to deliver on the mandate of Gautrain of delivering value for money,” said Maile.

The new concessionaire will be procured via a public-private partnership (PPP), which will make the Gautrain the first transport initiative in the world to be reconcessioned as a PPP, according to the MEC.

The expanded Gautrain will furthermore form a key leg of the planned high-speed rail link between Limpopo and Gauteng.

The so-called Bullet Train intends to shorten travel times between the provinces and will be constructed in two phases, the first of which will go from Pretoria to Polokwane, and the second from Louis Trichardt to Musina.

For anyone travelling by car, this route spans approximately 500km long and takes around six hours to complete.

A financial trainwreck

The Automobile Association (AA) has called on stakeholders to halt the Gautrain expansion, labelling the idea as a “financial train wreck.”

“Gauteng MEC Lebogang Maile’s announcement that the Gautrain has lost five million passengers over the past four years is a wake-up call that cannot be ignored,” said the Association.

The AA maintains that the railway only benefits a small minority of citizens with the financial means to use the relatively pricey service, and comes at the expense of better public transport for the majority who need it most.

“Yet, despite this reality, authorities are pushing forward with an extravagant R120-billion expansion project, neglecting the pressing transport needs of the province,” it said.

One of the biggest issues facing the extension is the Patronage Guarantee System.

The built-in mechanism compensates the Gautrain for low ridership levels and is backed by the Gauteng Provincial Government and, by extension, the province’s taxpayers.

The Gautrain Management Agency’s 2024 Integrated Annual Report showed that the Gauteng government paid R2.79 billion in the 2023/24 financial year to the Gautrain concessionaire for its lack of passengers, and R2.37 billion the year prior.

Add this to the R13 billion bill racked up by the mechanism between 2013 and 2022, and the AA estimates that Gauteng residents have collectively spent approximately R16 billion on keeping the commuter railway afloat since its inception regardless of whether they use it or not

The assocation contends that these shortcomings must be properly addressed before any further work on the Gautrain is done.

“It is quite clear that Gautrain failed to deliver on its ridership projections from the outset and now the burden of funding falls on taxpayers – the majority of whom don’t even use the system because it’s too expensive to do so. They are, in effect, subsidising a system that caters to the elite who are already mobile,” it said.

“We stand firm in our opposition to the extension of the Gautrain network, and the continued funding of the system through the Patronage Guarantee. A serious rethink of the expansion of the system is needed, particularly since it has shown that it cannot deliver on the numbers it projects and is, therefore, more of a liability than an asset.”

Instead of channelling resources into a failing expansion, the AA implores government to redirect its investment towards the following initiatives:

• Fixing roads – Deteriorating infrastructure is not only a financial burden on motorists but also worsens congestion.
• Upgrading taxis and buses – Reliable and efficient public transport is essential for the daily lives of most South Africans.
• Expanding accessible public transport – The Gautrain remains an elitist service, leaving a majority of commuters without viable alternatives.  

“From the outset, we have cautioned that this expansion is misguided. With dwindling ridership and mounting operational costs, it is now abundantly clear: We warned you,” concluded the AA.

“It’s time to refocus our investments on solutions that genuinely matter—transport initiatives that uplift all South Africans, not just a privileged few.”