The fuel price adjustments for July 2026 have continued to improve, pointing to a sizeable reduction for motorists next month
This is based on new mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund, which indicates that the price of both petrol and diesel will experience an over-recovery.
The international product price of petrol and diesel trended lower over the period between 29 May and 16 June.
As a result, petrol is now showing an over-recovery of between R2.73 and R2.77 per litre.
Diesel, meanwhile, is looking at an even stronger over-recovery of between R4.40 and R4.76 per litre.
Crucially, these reductions are large enough to offset the return of South Africa’s fuel taxes, which were heavily reduced after the war between Iran and the US began in late February.
These are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions as of mid-June:
- Petrol 93 – decrease of R2.73 per litre
- Petrol 95 – decrease of R2.77 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – decrease of R4.76 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – decrease of R4.40 per litre
Bear in mind that these estimates do not account for any adjustments to the Slate Levy, which may affect the final fuel price.
The good news is that fuel prices are likely to see a strong recovery over the coming weeks, which should be reflected by the time the official fuel price adjustments kick in during the first week of July.
This is because the US and Iran have finally signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war in the Middle East, terminating hostilities.
US President Donald Trump announced on 14 June that a deal had been reached and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, allowing oil shipments to pass through.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” he wrote in a social media post.
“Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade.”
The news is already showing results in the global oil price, which has dropped to a low point of $74 per barrel as of the time of writing.
At the same time, the rand has held its value against the US dollar, hovering around R16.40 per USD.
Not as good as it sounds
Unfortunately, while oil prices have seen a massive drop, South Africans won’t see the full benefit of the fuel savings.
This is because the remaining half of the General Fuel Levy (GFL) will be reintroduced in July.
The GFL was reduced by R3 per litre in April as a temporary tax break to assist with the skyrocketing cost of fuel.
The policy was extended to May. However, the National Treasury added half of the GFL back to the fuel price in June.
This added R1.50 to the cost of petrol at the start of this month, and another R1.50 will be added in July. Diesel will receive a slightly larger tax bump of R1.93 per litre.
Despite the fuel taxes, South Africa is still on track for a petrol and diesel price reduction, and the current predictions may still improve if the situation in the Middle East remains stable.
The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in July once the General Fuel Levy is factored in:
| June predictions | Recoveries at end of 2nd week of June | Fuel tax added back in July | Final projected change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | – R2.73 | + R1.50 | – R1.23 |
| Petrol 95 | – R2.77 | + R1.50 | – R1.27 |
| Diesel 0.05% | – R4.76 | + R1.93 | – R2.83 |
| Diesel 0.005% | – R4.40 | + R1.93 | – R2.47 |
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