South Africa has spent over R50 billion more to import fuel since the war in the Middle East began in late February 2026.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) noted that the war has taken a heavy toll on global markets, which had had to pay far more for fuel due to the rise in oil prices.
In its report, the CREA highlighted that South Africa has paid a net total of $3.5 billion (approximately R56 billion) in additional fossil fuel import costs between March and August 2026.
This is the single largest and sustained price shock since the 1990 Gulf War, according to BusinessTech.
South Africa is the second worst-affected country on the continent behind Egypt, which paid $5.2 billion. Morocco was third at $2.2 billion.
The $3.5 billion South Africa spent on fuel imports equates to roughly 0.88% of GDP, putting it in a group with other highly affected countries like Chile, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, which have all spent over 0.65% of their GDP.
The CREA said that South Africa had spent 3.2 days of its entire national income on fuel imports in the months since the war began.
This is mainly due to the skyrocketing price of diesel, which accounted for $2.1 billion in additional costs.
South Africa’s increased spending on diesel is on par with European countries like France and the United Kingdom, which have both spent over $2.1 billion.
One saving grace is that this global oil crisis has been partly mitigated by the transition to renewable energy sources in recent years.
The CREA estimated that clean power developments saved countries $36 billion (R581 billion) in avoided fuel costs by cutting down on the need for fossil fuels.
Another petrol price hike on the horizon this October
Data from the Central Energy Fund for the first week of September points to another under-recovery in petrol and diesel prices next month.
Petrol is currently expected to increase by around R2 per litre, while diesel users will be hit with a R2.69 per litre hike.
This is due to the high price of oil, as Brent Crude climbed to $96 per barrel this week following new attacks in the Middle East.
The United States launched strikes against Iranian targets, and Tehran responded with attacks against US bases in allied nations in the region, including Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Neither side seems willing to rejoin the negotiating table after the previous peace agreement fell through in June. Oil prices are 50% higher than what they were at the start of the year.
As a result, these are the CEF’s latest fuel price adjustment predictions as of the first week of September:
- Petrol 93 – increase of R1.96 per litre
- Petrol 95 – increase of R2.08 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R2.47 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R2.69 per litre
If the final price adjustments are similar, petrol will reach R29 per litre, while the wholesale price of diesel will reach R32.74 per litre.
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