New mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that South Africa’s fuel prices have continued to deteriorate, and that another massive hike is on the cards this October.
Its latest report shows that South Africa’s petrol price is now set for an under-recovery of between R2.38 and R2.52 per litre next month.
Diesel users aren’t faring any better, as the fuel is on track for an under-recovery of between R2.24 and R2.61 per litre.
While the current diesel price increase is more or less the same as the CEF’s report from the start of the month, the petrol price has gone up considerably from R2.08 to R2.52 per litre.
Unfortunately, with two more weeks to go, fuel prices are likely to continue to rise before the official adjustments are made in early October.
These are the CEF’s latest fuel price adjustment predictions as of the third week of September:
- Petrol 93 – increase of R2.38 per litre
- Petrol 95 – increase of R2.52 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R2.24 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R2.61 per litre
These large under-recoveries are the result of the spike in global oil prices brought on by the renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Brent Crude oil was trading at $90 per barrel on 31 August, which was already a massive jump from the $60 per barrel price point recorded at the beginning of 2026.
As of mid-September, oil prices have skyrocketed to $107 per barrel, resulting in a R2.63 per litre under-recovery in the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) of petrol.
The only silver lining is the rand, which has managed to hold a relatively strong value of just over R16 against the US dollar, leading to a small over-recovery in the BFP of 11c per litre.
Oil prices increased this month due to a fresh wave of attacks launched between the United States and Iran.
The Iranian-backed Houthis have also ramped up their activities, attacking vessels in the Red Sea and disrupting trade passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Saudi Arabia closed its East-West oil pipeline due to the risk posed by the Houthi attacks, cutting off a vital supply route that circumvented the Strait of Hormuz, which is still closed.
The conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon, which unfortunately means that fuel prices are likely to climb to record highs next month.
The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in October, based on the current projections:
| Fuel Type | September fuel price | Projected change | Expected fuel price for October |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R26.76 | + R2.38 | R29.14 |
| Petrol 95 | R26.92 | + R2.52 | R29.44 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R29.11 | + R2.24 | R31.35 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R30.05 | + R2.61 | R32.66 |
Petrol 93 price 28 August – 15 September
Petrol 95 price 28 August – 15 September
Diesel 0.05% price 28 August – 15 September
Diesel 0.005% price 28 August – 15 September
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1 commentsIt’s not just a fuel increase, costs more to run your car, all the taxes on fuel go up, and then of course the food you purchase and put on your table goes up. We’ve just absorbed a massive increase from Eskom, most municipalities have just increased rates, water, and sewerage costs. We’re does it end, the gov is being very quite regarding a problem that they caused shutting down the refineries and sell off all the reserves that had been painstakingly built up over the years. When do we the population declare enough is enough.