Petrol prices in South Africa have risen by more than 87% since 2013, whereas diesel prices went up by a less aggressive but still sizeable 79% during the same period.
In May 2023, the prices for these liquids peaked at R23.34 per litre for Petrol 95 at inland rates, compared to the same month in 2013 when the same fuel type cost R12.47/litre.
Perhaps more surprising is the fact that both petrol and diesel are now nearly twice as expensive as they were just four years ago in May 2020.
Granted, this was during the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic when demand for fuel was minimal, but it nonetheless illustrates the aggressiveness of price hikes over just the last 48 months.
Detailed in the following table are the inland prices for Petrol 95 and Diesel 50ppm over the past 10 years.
All rates were sourced from the South African Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia).
| Date | Petrol 95 | Diesel 50ppm |
|---|---|---|
| May 2013 | R12.47 | R11.46 |
| May 2014 | R14.24 | R13.05 |
| May 2015 | R12.89 | R11.24 |
| May 2016 | R12.74 | R10.59 |
| May 2017 | R13.79 | R11.85 |
| May 2018 | R14.97 | R13.38 |
| May 2019 | R16.67 | R14.95 |
| May 2020 | R12.22 | R11.18 |
| May 2021 | R17.23 | R14.50 |
| May 2022 | R21.84 | R22.16 |
| May 2023 | R23.34 | R20.50 |
What’s driving higher fuel prices
Fuel price adjustments in South Africa are mainly driven by changes in international oil prices and fluctuations
The biggest components in South Africa’s fuel price structure are the basic fuel price (BFP), general fuel levy (GFL), and road accident fund (RAF) levy which altogether account for over 90% of the cost.
In May 2013, the BFP was between R6.18 and R7.17 depending on the grade of fuel, the GFL was between R1.98 and R2.13, and the RAF levy was R0.96, according to the Department of Energy.
In 2023, these input costs stand at R12.06-R12.96, R3.82-R3.96, and R2.18, respectively.
This represents an average climb of 88% in the BFP, 90% in the GFL, and 127% in the RAF over the 10-year period. This is on top of a rise in retail and wholesale margins as well as storage and distribution costs which all add to the price pressures.
In addition to the more expensive input costs, the average rand/US dollar exchange rate over the past 10 years has performed far less than ideal. In May 2013, the local currency traded for around R9.34 to the dollar, whereas in May 2023 it reached an all-time low of R19.51 to the dollar.
South Africa purchases its fuel from other countries in dollars, therefore, if the average exchange rate rises, so, too, does the cost of importing propellants. The country has also become more dependent on internationally-sourced fuel with several local refineries closing their doors in recent years.
Lastly, international oil prices have also fluctuated up and down in the last decade which affects the BFP at which we buy fuels from other countries.
Brent Crude sold for US$109 per barrel in 2013 but now goes for under US$80 per barrel, which undoubtedly had a positive effect on prices at the pumps in the 10 years prior, but not enough to offset the negative consequences of the depreciating rand and inflating taxes and levies.
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