Better news about petrol and diesel prices in South Africa

Petrol prices are expected to go up again this June, but by a much smaller margin than previously reported.

Diesel, on the other hand, will see a much-needed price drop next month.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that fuel price recoveries have stabilised after two months of extreme fluctuations.

Petrol prices have dropped to a relatively neutral position with a small under-recovery of between 13c and 19c per litre next month.

This is a remarkable improvement from the CEF’s data one week earlier, which showed under-recoveries of between 84c and 88c per litre.

Things are even better for diesel, as users can expect a substantial reduction of between R3.52 and R4.41 per litre.

These are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions for the end of the second week of May:

• Petrol 93 – increase of 13 cents per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of 19 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – decrease of R4.41 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – decrease of R3.52 per litre

While these estimates reflect a positive trend for fuel prices, the market is still susceptible to price shocks.

The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, causing major disruptions to global oil supplies.

The peace talks between the United States and Iran have also made little progress.

US President Donald Trump threatened the Islamic Republic on Truth Social this Sunday, stating “the clock is ticking” and that the country “better get moving FAST or there won’t be anything left of them.”

Saudi Arabia claimed it intercepted three drones, and the UAE experienced a drone strike near its Barakah nuclear power plant, though no injuries were reported, according to Sky News.

Even so, oil prices are far more stable than they were two months ago when the conflict caused oil to jump from $60 per barrel to $120 per barrel.

Oil was trading around $100 per barrel last week but has since risen to $107 per barrel following the latest attacks.

Additionally, the International Oil Agency warned that the conflict has reduced global oil inventories at a record pace.

It said the market will be “severely undersupplied” until October, even if the war ends by next month.

The silver lining is that the rand has shown remarkable resilience despite the difficult economic environment.

The rand/US dollar exchange rate has not moved past R17/USD, and is currently hovering around R16.71.

Petrol and diesel prices are going down, but taxes are going up

Unfortunately, while the international market has improved over the last week, any gains for local fuel prices will be undermined by the reintroduction of the General Fuel Levy (GFL).

In April 2026, the National Treasury slashed the GFL by R3 per litre for both petrol and diesel to soften the blow to consumers dealt by surging oil prices.

This relief measure was extended to May, and the diesel reduction was increased to R3.93 per litre.

However, the Treasury stated that, starting in June, 50% of the GFL will be added back to fuel prices. The remaining 50% will be re-added in July.

Consequently, R1.50 is being added back to the petrol price in June, while diesel will be hit with a R1.97 increase.

In other words, the “true” fuel price adjustment for next month is a R1.69 per litre increase for petrol.

Diesel will still experience a reduction, but it will be much lower than what the CEF’s data suggests due to the re-added fuel tax.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in June once the General Fuel Levy is factored in: