US oil refiners are increasing diesel and petrol shipments to Africa as the continent struggles to cope with supply disruptions from the wars in Iran and Ukraine.
The surge in cargoes from fuel makers in places like Texas and Louisiana has been so strong that the US has become one of South Africa’s top sources of petrol and diesel, according to data from energy analytics companies Vortexa and Kpler.
It’s a significant shift for a nation that typically relies on the Middle East and India for such fuels.
Other African nations, including Cote d’Ivoire and Namibia, are also leaning on the US to replace shipments formerly delivered by India, Russia or Persian Gulf refiners.
Indian supplies have been crimped as the Iran conflict throttles trade from that region, while Russia has been beset by Ukrainian attacks on refineries that prompted the Kremlin to restrict fuel exports.
Africa may be emerging as the “marginal market” for US refiners, which are running at maximum capacity to satisfy demand, said Susan Bell, senior vice president of downstream research at Rystad Energy.
South Africa is on pace to absorb more than 5 million barrels of US diesel since the Iran war began in late February, along with 400,000 barrels of petrol, Vortexa data showed.
That amounts to a “truly unprecedented” trade flow, Bell noted.
In March alone, diesel shipments to Africa’s second-largest economy reached 1.8 million barrels, higher than any full-year totals in records going back to 1990, according to the Energy Information Administration.
That fits in with a broader global dynamic that’s seen the US become the swing supplier of crude oil.
Total exports of crude and refined products are hovering near record highs, eroding domestic stockpiles that include the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
In Cote d’Ivoire, imports of US motor fuels have increased sevenfold from a year ago, according to Vortexa data.
Although the West African country doesn’t rely much on Persian Gulf refiners, American cargoes are plugging the gaps from limits on Russian shipments and reduced deliveries from Europe.
Shipping US Gulf Coast diesel to West Africa has been profitable since March, said Nikolas Plonski, oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities.
That owes both to lost Middle Eastern supplies and fewer shipments arriving from Russia and India, he said.
“That combination has kept the pull on US barrels stronger for longer than would typically be the case,” Plonski said.
Even Namibia is tapping US fuel makers, drawing 1.7 million barrels of diesel since March, according to Vortexa.
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