Even better news about petrol prices for South Africa

The fuel price adjustments for July 2026 are shaping up to be even better than previously anticipated.

According to the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF’s) latest reports for the third week of June, fuel recoveries have climbed even further into the green, translating to a bigger price cut next month.

This can largely be attributed to a wave of positive sentiment brought about by the memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East.

The conflict is not over, mind you, as Israel has continued to launch attacks against Lebanon.

Nevertheless, the improving situation in the Middle East has already had a dramatic effect on oil prices, with costs dropping to around $76 per barrel as of the time of writing.

With this in mind, the CEF’s latest data indicates that petrol will experience an over-recovery of at least R2.82 per litre, while diesel users will benefit from an even larger over-recovery of between R4.53 and R4.92 per litre.

These are the CEF’s fuel price adjustment predictions at the end of the third week of June:

• Petrol 93 – decrease of R2.82 per litre
• Petrol 95 – decrease of R2.87 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – decrease of R4.53 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – decrease of R4.92 per litre

Note that the above figures do not account for any adjustments to the Slate Levy, which may affect the final fuel price.

At this point in the month, the CEF’s estimates are a strong indication of what the final fuel price will be once the official adjustments are made during the first week of July.

This is assuming that both the rand and the international oil price maintain their current levels.

As mentioned, oil prices plummeted this past week thanks to the negotiations between the US and Iran, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the rand’s value is likely to dip as the US dollar strengthens its position.

Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop noted that the rand’s value dropped from R16.15/$to R16.48/$ this week, and there is now a 100% market expectation that interest rates will be hiked by 25 basis points this October.

Don’t forget about taxes

While the basic fuel price is showing a strong over-recovery, the return of the General Fuel Levy (GFL) will sadly ensure that motorists do not see the full benefit of the reductions.

The GFL was reduced by R3 per litre in April and May to counteract the massive fuel price hikes.

However, this relief measure is coming to an end, as the National Treasury added half of the GFL (R1.50) back to the price of petrol this June.

The other half, R1.50 for petrol and R1.96 for diesel, will be reintroduced in July, partly offsetting the fuel savings.

The following table shows how fuel prices will be affected in July once the General Fuel Levy is factored in: