At the end of the third full week of April, data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) showed that South Africa’s motorists can expect a price hike in May, though not as much as was feared earlier in the month.
The CEF’s latest report, published at the end of last week, revealed that under-recoveries for petrol and diesel have trended lower throughout the month.
At the start of the review period (27 March to 30 April 2026), petrol 95 indicated an under-recovery of R7.88 per litre. At the same time, 0.005% signalled an increase of R17.57 per litre.
However, at the start of the final week of April, the CEF’s data, which considers several factors including global basic fuel prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate, is pointing towards smaller under-recoveries.
This pattern has held true throughout the month, as petrol was expected to go up by between R4.29 and R4.69 per litre after the first week of April.
By the end of the second week of April, the CEF’s under-recoveries dropped to between R3.25 and R3.63 per litre.
Now, however, petrol is showing an under-recovery of between R1.82 and R2.14 per litre, a 73% decrease, while diesel shows an under-recovery of around R5.93 per litre, down more than 66% since the start of the month.
These are the new projected fuel price adjustments for petrol and diesel:
- Petrol 93 – increase of R1.82 per litre
- Petrol 95 – increase of R2.14 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) – increase of R5.92 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) – increase of R5.93 per litre
These increases can be attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has scuppered production and choked global supply.
It must also be noted that the CEF merely provides a snapshot of the situation, and that these under-recoveries may change right up until the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) announces the official adjustments.
Motorists holding their breath
South African motorists are waiting to hear if the government’s General Fuel Levy (GFL) price relief will be extended beyond April.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana recently revealed that South Africa is a price-taker in oil markets and that there is little room to further cushion motorists.
“We have to live with the reality that we are price takers as far as oil is concerned. There is nothing we can do about that price,” said Godongwana.
According to Citigroup’s chief economist for South Africa, Gina Schoeman, South Africa has enough fiscal space to extend the GFL cut by two months at a cost of over R10 billion.
Beyond this point, the government will struggle to provide relief for motorists.
“It is difficult to say if the relief can be extended at the moment, sitting in Washington. We have offered reprieve until 5 May; beyond that, we will have to think again about what is available,” Godongwana told 702.
The minister further explained that any further funding made available after 5 May will be purely to help South Africans adjust to the higher prices.
Conversations among South Africa’s ministers, including Godongwana, have until now focused on helping its citizens cope with rising fuel prices without putting the state’s finances at risk.
He also indicated that South Africa currently has no plans to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“As far as South Africa is concerned, over the past few years, we have built buffers so that we will not rely on the IMF for support in critical times, such as these,” Godongwana said.
“In that regard, we have not come to the conclusion that we are going to be seeking any support from the IMF.”
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